Why Thursday’s Inflation Report Could Reshape the September Fed Meeting

👋Hello and Happy Monday! 🌅 

Here’s what’s on deck this week:

• The S&P 500’s expected range for the week is 6343 to 6620.

• Fresh August inflation data drops this week, giving the Fed one last look at prices before its big rate call later this month.

• Apple’s iPhone 17 reveal is on deck, while Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft will headline a major tech investor conference.

• On the earnings front, Oracle and GameStop step into the spotlight with quarterly results.

Let’s get going.▶️▶️

📅 What’s on tap this week? Inflation data, big tech updates, and a meme-stock earnings test are all set to move markets.

Thursday’s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) offers the final inflation check before the Fed’s Sept. 17 rate decision. With jobs data showing cracks in the labor market, investors are betting the Fed will deliver its first rate cut of the year—even as inflation remains sticky.

On the corporate side, Apple is expected to reveal the iPhone 17 lineup at its Tuesday event, featuring multiple models including a thinner “Air.” Meanwhile, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Meta, and Microsoft will take the stage at Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia + Technology Conference, giving investors fresh clues on AI, chips, and cloud momentum.

💵What’s the S&P 500’s Expected Price Range for the Week?

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For the 9th time in 10 weeks, the S&P 500 cash index (SPX) closed within its implied range last week. And, for a 5th consecutive week, SPX ended last week’s trading with “strong uptrend” characteristics.

Based on the past 20 years of weekly data, the S&P 500 cash index (SPX) has closed within its implied range 79.4% of the time while trading in a strong uptrend like it is currently. Odds are favorable that this to continue until the trend reverses.

📊Earnings will add even more color to an already busy week: Most importantly, Oracle reports Tuesday after a string of big cloud deals, Adobe will update investors on AI-driven demand, and GameStop will show whether meme-stock momentum is still alive after a rough quarter.

👇 Below, is a look at this week’s biggest earnings reports, sorted by market cap.

This week’s biggest earnings reports (Oracle and Adobe) may be poised to move beyond their implied ranges following earnings.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, KT and Nebius Group NV are the largest stocks showing potential to trade well within their expected ranges following earnings (keep reading below this table for more details).

For active traders looking for actionable insights, the highlighted columns on the table above show the implied (expected) post-earnings move for each company, along with the Average 1-Day Realized Volatility Post Earnings Ratio (1D RV).

📈Implied Move: The market’s best guess at how much a stock will swing after earnings.

📊1D RV: A powerful tool that represents the post-earnings price move divided by the expected price move over the past 12 quarters. In other words, it measures how good (or bad) the market is at pricing each company’s earnings.

💵When you see a ratio >1.0, indicates that, historically, the earnings are mispriced and the stock moves MORE than the market anticipates, favoring straddle buyers.

🪝A ratio <1.0 tells the opposite story, meaning the stock historically moves LESS than the market anticipates, which favors straddle sellers.

Happy hunting.

^{_{CPI: The Make-or-Break Moment}} 

Markets are gearing up for a high-stakes week after August’s lackluster jobs report left investors both hopeful and uneasy. On one hand, the softer data stoked optimism that the Fed will deliver deeper rate cuts to cushion the economy. On the other, it underscored nagging concerns about a slowdown already taking hold. Odds of a 50-basis-point cut at the September 17–18 Fed meeting have jumped, up from the quarter-point move most expected just days ago.

The main event comes Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET with the release of August’s Consumer Price Index. This will be the Fed’s final inflation check before policymakers decide on rates, and traders are bracing for every decimal point. Energy prices, rent, and sticky services costs will be watched closely.

Markets already leaning toward a supersized cut could swing sharply if CPI strays from expectations. A cooler-than-forecast print would confirm dovish bets, while any upside surprise risks reigniting volatility in rate-sensitive sectors. In short: Thursday’s CPI isn’t just a data point—it’s the pivot that could define the Fed’s entire fall playbook.

What Does History Tell Us About the S&P’s Pre/Post CPI Tendencies?

With the exception the April 10th, 2025 release of March CPI data that came right as the market was suffering its tariff-induced sell-off, the S&P 500 cash index has rolled into the eight previous CPI reports with no more than intra-week rally/decline of ±4%. And in the five days after, SPX has been contained to a rally of no more than 3%, with a max drawdown of no more than -2%.

With the stock market’s main measure of volatility (the CBOE Volatility Index - VIX) still trading near 1- year lows, any expectations for the S&P 500’s weekly performance to be abnormally distributed this week are probably premature.

The charts tell us that, in order for this to change, VIX needs to close above 19.38.

Click here 👈to learn more about our charts.

Monday

Consumer credit (July)

Top Earnings: Casey’s General Stores, Planet Labs

Nvidia, AMD present at Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference

Tuesday

NFIB small business optimism (August)

Top Earnings: Oracle, Synopsys, Rubrik, Core & Main, SailPoint, AeroVironment, GameStop

Apple iPhone launch event

Meta Platforms, Broadcom present at Goldman Sachs conference

Wednesday

Producer Price Index (August)

Top Earnings: Chewy, Daktronics, Oxford Industries, Alliance Entertainment

Microsoft, Workday present at Goldman Sachs conference

More Data to Watch: Wholesale inventories (July)

Thursday

Consumer Price Index (August)

Top Earnings: Adobe, Kroger

More Data to Watch: Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending Aug. 16), Monthly U.S. federal budget (August)

Friday

Consumer sentiment - preliminary (September)