Wall Street’s Wild Card: Jackson Hole

👋Hello and Happy Monday! 🌅 

Here’s what’s on deck this week:

• 📢 Powell’s Friday remarks could hint at Fed rate moves

• 📈 The annual Jackson Hole Symposium has a history of market disruption

• 🛒 Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s earnings test consumers

• 💸 Tariff pressures loom over big-box retailers’ results

• 🏡 Housing market data lands midweek spotlight

• 📑 Fed minutes drop, investors parse policy signals

• 👷 Weekly jobless claims gauge labor market health

Let’s dive in.💦💦

🗓️ All Eyes on Jackson Hole: Will Powell Tip His Hand?

Pack your bags for Wyoming—Wall Street’s eyes are on the Tetons. The Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium kicks off this week, with Jerome Powell headlining a roster of central bankers, economists, and policymakers.

Investors are betting Powell’s remarks could hint at a September rate cut, especially as political pressure from Trump and his team to ease borrowing costs keeps mounting.

We’ll also get a peek under the hood of the Fed’s July meeting when minutes drop on Wednesday, shedding light on the two members who broke ranks to vote for a cut.

Beyond Fed chatter, fresh housing data and weekly jobless claims will round out the economic picture.

💵What’s the Market Pricing In?

We haven't listened to Sade's “Smooth Operator” in a while, but it should probably be added to the playlist after recent market action. Why? Because the S&P 500’s weekly price movement has remained ridiculously efficient, closing within its implied range in 8 of the last 10 weeks.

This week, market makers are looking for the S&P 500 cash index (SPX) to trade between 6587 and 6313.

Click here 👈to learn more about our charts.

Last week, volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), fell to 18-month lows. As a result, the S&P 500 continued its path within a “strong uptrend” regime.

A look back at the past 20 years of weekly S&P 500 price action shows that the cash market (SPX) has closed within its implied range 79% of the time while trading in a strong uptrend.

📊 Tariffs are starting to ripple through the retail world, and this week’s earnings could reveal how much pressure companies—and shoppers—are feeling.

• Home Depot (HD) reports Tuesday after holding the line on prices despite rising costs.

• Target (TGT) follows Wednesday, still under the shadow of last quarter’s sales warning.

• Walmart (WMT) drops results Thursday, with price hikes already in play to offset tariffs.

• Meanwhile, TJX (TJX) has warned its off-price model isn’t immune, and Lowe’s (LOW) plus Ross Stores (ROST) are also set to report. For investors, the big question is whether tariffs are eating into margins and sales.

👇 Below, is a look at this week’s biggest earnings reports, sorted by market cap.

More importantly, this table from Unusual Whales shows if each stock is likely to move more or less than what the current implied volatility is pricing in (keep scrolling below the table to learn more).

For active traders looking for actionable insights, the highlighted columns on the table above show the implied (expected) post-earnings move for each company, along with the Average 1-Day Realized Volatility Post Earnings Ratio (1D RV).

📈Implied Move: The market’s best guess at how much a stock will swing after earnings.

📊1D RV: A powerful tool that represents the post-earnings price move divided by the expected price move over the past 12 quarters. In other words, it measures how good (or bad) the market is at pricing each company’s earnings.

💵When you see a ratio >1.0, indicates that, historically, the earnings are mispriced and the stock moves MORE than the market anticipates, favoring straddle buyers.

🪝A ratio <1.0 tells the opposite story, meaning the stock historically moves LESS than the market anticipates, which favors straddle sellers.

Happy hunting.

Why Jackson Hole Matters

The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium isn’t just another event—it’s the unofficial Fed mic-drop for economic watchers. Hosted by the Kansas City Fed in Wyoming’s scenic Grand Teton backdrop, it's where Chair Powell and global policymakers test-drive new monetary ideas.

What’s on Tap for 2025

This year’s theme is "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," running August 21–23. Jerome Powell takes the mic at 10 a.m. ET on Friday for his highly anticipated keynote speech.

Investors are bracing for clues on how the Fed will navigate the crosswinds of a cooling labor market and stubbornly sticky inflation.

July’s weak jobs report has some betting Powell could tilt dovish and open the door to a rate cut. But with inflation still hovering about a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target, the chair may keep his hawkish feathers ruffled, signaling no rush to ease.

Market Reactions: A 20-Year Snapshot

Despite its remote locale, Jackson Hole has been known to stir up volatility:

• On average, the S&P 500 has returned 0.34% in the two weeks surrounding the event, with a median return of 1.30%.

• The worst return during the two weeks surrounding the event was the 2001 decline of -7.9%. That year’s symposium theme was “Economic Policy for the Information Economy."

• The strongest return during the two weeks surrounding the event was the 2011 rally of 4.5%. That year’s symposium theme was "Achieving Maximum Long-Run Growth."

On a more granular level, this graph shows the S&P’s tendency to start weak, then become a bit more choppy, during the week leading up to the event (this week). This is then followed by a steady start, and gradual strengthening to end the following week (next week).

The Bottom Line

Jackson Hole is more than a fancy ski retreat—it’s where monetary strategy and market expectations converge. With labor markets under strain and inflation still a concern, this year’s symposium could mark a pivotal moment in how the Fed thinks and communicates.

With the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) sliding to low levels not seen since December of last year last week, look for the S&P 500 to remain true to its typical daily and weekly price swings until we see a reversal of this trend.

Click here 👈to learn more about our charts.

Monday

• Homebuilder confidence (August)

• Key Earnings: Palo Alto Networks

Tuesday

• Housing starts (July)

• Key Earnings: Home Depot, Medtronic, Keysight Technologies, Viking Holdings, XPeng, Toll Brothers

Wednesday

• FOMC minutes for July meeting

• Fed Officials Speaking: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

• Key Earnings: TJX Cos., Lowe’s, Analog Devices, Target, Estee Lauder, Baidu

Thursday

• Existing home sales (July)

• Fed Officials Speaking: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins

• Key Earnings: Walmart, Intuit, Workday, Ross Stores

• Data to Watch: Initial jobless claims (Week ending Aug. 16), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (August), S&P Flash U.S. PMI (August), U.S. leading economic indicators (July)

Friday

• Expected remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole symposium

• Key Earnings: BJ’s Wholesale Club