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Volatility Still Trending Ahead of Jobs, CPI, and a Busy Earnings Week
Cisco, consumer brands, and travel stocks offer clues on spending and AI demand.
👋 Hello and welcome to Monday! 🌅
Here’s what we’re watching this week:
Data backlog hits all at once: jobs, inflation, and retail sales finally take center stage.
Shutdown delays mean January numbers carry extra weight and potential volatility.
Cisco headlines earnings week, with Big Tech, pharma, and consumer giants in the mix.
All of this comes as volatility is still trending higher.
Let’s rock! 🎶
🔍A Week of High Stakes and Hard Data
This week brings a backlog of market-moving data as investors catch up on reports delayed by last week’s government shutdown.
The January employment report is expected Wednesday, giving the first fresh look at labor-market momentum after December showed softer job growth but a lower unemployment rate.
Inflation data follows on Friday with the January CPI report, where policymakers remain focused on whether easing price pressures are becoming durable enough to justify future rate cuts.
A day earlier, retail sales figures will help answer whether consumers maintained their spending pace through the holiday season.
💵 What’s the market pricing in for the week ahead?
ℹ️ WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?
Knowing what the implied weekly range is helps traders set expectations for what the likely trading limits will be. This can help prevent overreaction near quantified range extremes, while also providing perspective on whether there is still room for an intra-week rally or sell-off to run.
📝 Note: This same logic can also be applied to the “Where’s the Action At?” section below.
Click here 👈 to learn more about our charts.
📈 Earnings Check-In on Consumers, Travel, and AI
Corporate earnings add another storyline.
Cisco’s results arrive midweek and could offer insight into how real demand for AI-related infrastructure is shaping up beyond the hype. Other technology names, including semiconductor and networking companies, are also set to report.
Consumer-facing firms round out the week, with updates from Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Unilever, and Shopify providing a cross-section view of everything from discretionary spending to everyday staples, and whether households are still opening their wallets.
Another corner of the earnings calendar checks in on how consumers are moving and spending. Results from Ford, Honda, and Ferrari will help frame the health of global auto demand across mass market and luxury, while updates from Marriott and Airbnb serve as a pulse check on travel appetite after a busy holiday stretch.
Health care also takes a turn in the spotlight, with reports from AstraZeneca, Moderna, and Vertex offering clues on drug pipelines and pricing power.
Rounding out the week, Robinhood and Coinbase step up amid a recent pullback in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, giving investors a read on whether lower prices are cooling trading activity or setting the stage for a rebound.
🤔 Which companies are poised to possibly over- or underreact to earnings this week?
The largest company to report earnings this week, Coca-Cola, has a history of trading within the market makers’ expected range during the trading session immediately following earnings (keep reading below the next table for more details on how this is calculated).
Of the 20 largest companies reporting earnings this week, Shopify has the strongest tendency to overshoot the implied price range immediately following earnings.
On the other side of the coin, of the top 20 companies reporting this week, Southern Copper shows the greatest likelihood of staying inside its post-earnings expected range (keep reading below the next table for more details).
👇 Below is a look at this week’s biggest earnings reports, sorted by market cap:
HOW CAN TRADERS USE THIS INFORMATION?
For active traders looking to trade some of this week’s earnings plays, the highlighted columns on the table above show the implied (expected) post-earnings move for each company, along with the Average 1-Day Realized Volatility Post-Earnings Ratio (1D RV).
📈 Implied Move: The market’s best guess at how much a stock will swing after earnings.
📊 1D RV: A powerful tool that represents the post-earnings price move divided by the expected price move over the past 12 quarters. In other words, it measures how good (or bad) the market is at pricing each company’s earnings.
💵 When you see a ratio >1.0, it indicates that, historically, the earnings are mispriced and the stock moves MORE than the market anticipates, favoring straddle buyers.
🪝 A ratio <1.0 tells the opposite story, meaning the stock historically moves LESS than the market anticipates, which favors straddle sellers.
Happy hunting.
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This week, the Technology (XLK), Consumer Cyclicals (XLY), and Industrials (XLI) sectors are sporting the highest implied volatility on the board.
Tech investors will focus on key earnings to gauge if massive AI infrastructure spending is translating into sustained hardware demand.
For Consumer Cyclicals, attention centers on Ford and Marriott results, alongside December retail sales data, to assess consumer resilience amid a normalizing labor market.
For Industrials, market participants will watch Lyft earnings and November factory orders to determine if the sector's recent rotation-led momentum can withstand broader economic cooling.
For those looking for slower price action, Financials (XLF), Real Estate (XLRE) , and Consumer Staples (XLP) are registering the lowest implied volatility.
When watching Financials, investors will analyze the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Nonfarm Payrolls to evaluate the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026.
Real Estate investors will focus on January existing home sales and earnings from Curbline Properties and Airbnb to see if stabilizing mortgage rates are finally unlocking housing inventory.
Finally, Consumer Staples investors will be watching Coca-Cola and McDonald's earnings to scrutinize if the sector can maintain its early 2026 defensive outperformance through premium pricing power.
ℹ️ WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?
For options traders in particular: Implied volatility sets the tone for option prices. Understanding where large or small implied moves are priced in helps traders decide whether options are over- or under-valued before placing trades.
Monday
Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Gov. Stephen Miran, Gov. Christopher Waller, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic
Top Earnings: Apollo Global Management, Onsemi, Loews, Principal Financial
Tuesday
U.S. retail sales
NFIB small business optimism index, Employment cost index, Import price index, Business inventories
Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack
Top Earnings: Coca-Cola, AstraZeneca, Gilead Sciences, BP, CVS Health, Spotify Technology, Duke Energy, Marriott, Ferrari, Ecolab, Robinhood, Cloudflare, Ford Motor, Honda Motor, Barclays
Wednesday
U.S. employment report
Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman
Monthly U.S. federal budget
Top Earnings: Cisco, McDonald’s, T-Mobile, AppLovin, Shopify
Thursday
Existing-home sales
Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Gov. Stephen Miran
Initial jobless claims
Top Earnings: Applied Materials, Arista Networks, Unilever, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Brookfield, Airbnb, Coinbase Global
Friday
Consumer price index
Top Earnings: Enbridge, Moderna
As we’ve been noting, volatility has been trending higher in recent weeks, The VIX jumped to its highest level in a couple months on Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 outside its usual daily guardrails all week long.
While the VIX did collapse on Friday, once again the near-term trend, in the form of the VIX’s rising 21-day moving average (a summary of the past month’s trading) is still acting as support for volatility. Until this changes, active investors should remain on the lookout for unusually large daily price swings.
📝 EDITOR’S NOTE
Each day the market is open, we update our comprehensive performance charts on our website for you to view. In addition, be sure to follow us on X for timely intra-week updates.
📋Here’s a curated list of top value-added insights that uncover what’s happening way beyond the usual financial media headlines.
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