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The Market Has Three Things to Figure Out This Week
Geopolitics, bank earnings, and AI demand—and none of them are straightforward.
👋 Hello and welcome to Monday! 🌅
Here’s what we’re watching:
Geopolitics remains unresolved, keeping oil risk elevated and limiting sustained risk-on sentiment
Bank earnings will signal macro health, especially dealmaking, consumers, and recession risk
AI demand faces a reality check as key chip players report this week
Let’s roll!🛼🛼🛼
🔍Geopolitics still setting the tone
Markets are heading into the week with one big question hanging over everything: is the U.S.-Iran situation actually stabilizing, or is it just on pause? Over the weekend, talks broke down after Iran refused to commit to curbing nuclear development, keeping uncertainty and oil market risk firmly in play. That backdrop continues to ripple across markets, especially after last week’s hotter inflation read, which already has investors recalibrating expectations.
Banks step up first
Earnings season kicks off with the banks, and they’re doing more than reporting numbers—they’re setting the tone. Goldman Sachs starts things off Monday, followed by JPMorgan and Bank of America. Investors will be listening closely for signals on trading activity, dealmaking appetite, and IPO pipelines.
But the real focus? The macro read-through. Bank CEOs tend to say the quiet part out loud, and with warnings about potential economic “tipping points” already floating around, this week’s commentary could carry more weight than usual. Consumer health is also in focus, with results from a major grocery chain offering a ground-level look at how inflation is shaping spending behavior.
AI demand check-in
The AI trade gets another reality check this week. Chip equipment giant ASML reports midweek, followed by Taiwan Semiconductor, with both offering key updates on demand trends. Early signals suggest the AI buildout is still running hot, but investors will want confirmation that momentum is holding—and not just priced in.
💵 What’s the market pricing in for the week ahead?
ℹ️ WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?
Knowing what the implied weekly range is helps traders set expectations for what the likely trading limits will be. This can help prevent overreaction near quantified range extremes, while also providing perspective on whether there is still room for an intra-week rally or sell-off to run.
📝 Note: This same logic can also be applied to the “Where’s the Action At?” section below.
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📈 This week’s top events
Goldman kicks things off Monday, followed by JPMorgan and Bank of America, alongside a major grocery retailer that could offer insight into consumer spending trends.
Midweek, attention shifts to tech, as ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor provide updates on AI-driven demand.
By Thursday, a major consumer brand rounds things out, offering another angle on pricing strategy and demand.
🤔 Which companies are poised to possibly over- or underreact to earnings this week?
The largest company to report earnings this week, Delta Airlines, has a history of trading outside of the market makers’ expected range during the trading session immediately following earnings (keep reading below the next table for more details on how this is calculated).
Of the 20 largest companies reporting earnings this week, Progressive shows the greatest tendency to overshoot the implied price range immediately following earnings.
On the other side of the coin, of the top 20 companies reporting this week, ICICI Bank has the highest likelihood of staying inside its post-earnings expected range (keep reading below the next table for more details).
👇 Below is a look at this week’s biggest earnings reports, sorted by market cap:
HOW CAN TRADERS USE THIS INFORMATION?
For active traders looking to trade some of this week’s earnings plays, the highlighted columns on the table above show the implied (expected) post-earnings move for each company, along with the Average 1-Day Realized Volatility Post-Earnings Ratio (1D RV).
📈 Implied Move: The market’s best guess at how much a stock will swing after earnings.
📊 1D RV: A powerful tool that represents the post-earnings price move divided by the expected price move over the past 12 quarters. In other words, it measures how good (or bad) the market is at pricing each company’s earnings.
💵 When you see a ratio >1.0, it indicates that, historically, the earnings are mispriced and the stock moves MORE than the market anticipates, favoring straddle buyers.
🪝 A ratio <1.0 tells the opposite story, meaning the stock historically moves LESS than the market anticipates, which favors straddle sellers.
Happy hunting.
🤖 UK financial regulators rush to assess risks of Anthropic's latest AI model, FT reports: Britain's top financial watchdogs — including the Bank of England, FCA, and HM Treasury — are holding urgent talks with the National Cyber Security Centre after Anthropic's new Claude Mythos Preview model reportedly identified thousands of vulnerabilities in critical IT systems, prompting a flurry of emergency meetings with major banks and insurers who are now nervously updating their passwords. Read more
🔥 Sam Altman speaks out after alleged attack on S.F. home, links it to rising AI anxiety: A 20-year-old anti-AI activist named Daniel Alejandro Moreno-Gama was arrested after allegedly hurling a Molotov cocktail at OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's San Francisco home at 3:45 a.m., then strolling over to OpenAI's Mission Bay headquarters to threaten to burn that down too — because apparently one target wasn't enough — prompting Altman to post a rare family photo and urge everyone to "de-escalate the rhetoric" and aim for "fewer explosions in fewer homes." Read more
🚗 Average price of new cars nears $50,000 as automakers focus on big pickups and SUVs while cheaper sedans get phased out: New vehicles now average nearly $50,000 — up 30% in six years — as automakers have quietly killed off affordable sedans in favor of profit-fat trucks and SUVs, leaving budget-conscious buyers with a shrinking 13% of inventory under $30,000 and monthly payments hitting $775, which is a lot for something you're just going to sit in traffic with. Read more
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⚡ Tesla Sitting on Record Inventory: Tesla built 50,363 more EVs than it delivered in Q1 2026 — the largest production-to-delivery gap in the company's history — as the elimination of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, falling demand, and some reputational headwinds left the once-sold-out brand with parking lots full of unsold Model 3s and Model Ys, and a discontinued Model S and X, proving that even the coolest car company isn't immune to the laws of supply and demand. Read more
🛢️ Lessons learned in '70s have made the US and world economies less vulnerable to oil shocks: With oil prices surging again following war in the Middle East and stagflation anxiety making a very unwelcome comeback tour, economists are cautiously optimistic that decades of energy efficiency improvements, domestic oil production, and strategic reserves mean the U.S. is better equipped to handle the shock than it was in 1973 — though they remind us that oil is still, annoyingly, king. Read more
Volatility is clustering where you’d expect. The energy sector (XLE) leads the pack, followed by the technology sector (XLK) and the consumer discretionary sector (XLY).
In energy, all eyes are on oil supply dynamics and any updates tied to Middle East tensions. In tech, investors are focused on AI-driven earnings momentum and guidance from mega-cap names. And in consumer discretionary, the spotlight shifts to spending data and how resilient the consumer really is heading into the next round of economic prints.
At the other end, the real estate sector (XLRE), consumer staples (XLP), and healthcare (XLV) are showing the lowest implied volatility. For real estate, investors are watching interest rates, which have been holding at elevated levels recently, and their impact on financing conditions. In staples, attention turns to pricing power and margin stability. And in healthcare, the focus remains on regulatory developments and upcoming drug pipeline updates that could quietly move the group.
ℹ️ WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?
For options traders in particular: Implied volatility sets the tone for option prices. Understanding where large or small implied moves are priced in helps traders decide whether options are over- or under-valued before placing trades.
Monday April 13
10:00 AM – Existing Home Sales MAR (Previous: 4.09M | Forecast: 4.01M)
10:00 AM – Existing Home Sales MoM MAR (Previous: 1.7% | Forecast: -2.0%)
Tuesday April 14
08:15 AM – ADP Employment Change Weekly (Previous: 26K)
08:30 AM – PPI MoM MAR (Previous: 0.7% | Forecast: 1.3%)
08:30 AM – Core PPI MoM MAR (Previous: 0.5% | Forecast: 0.4%)
04:30 PM – API Crude Oil Stock Change APR/10 (Previous: 3.719M)
Wednesday April 15
07:00 AM – MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate APR/10 (Previous: 6.51%)
08:30 AM – Export Prices MoM MAR (Previous: 1.5% | Forecast: 3.2%)
08:30 AM – Import Prices MoM MAR (Previous: 1.3% | Forecast: 2.9%)
08:30 AM – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index APR (Previous: -0.20 | Forecast: -3.1)
10:00 AM – NAHB Housing Market Index APR (Previous: 38 | Forecast: 37)
10:30 AM – EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change APR/10 (Previous: 3.081M)
10:30 AM – EIA Gasoline Stocks Change APR/10 (Previous: -1.589M)
04:00 PM – Net Long-term TIC Flows FEB (Previous: $15.5B)
Thursday April 16
08:30 AM – Initial Jobless Claims APR/11 (Previous: 219K | Forecast: 216.0K)
08:30 AM – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index APR (Previous: 18.1 | Forecast: 17)
08:35 AM – Fed Williams Speech
09:15 AM – Industrial Production MoM MAR (Previous: 0.2% | Forecast: 0.5%)
Friday April 17
12:15 PM – Fed Barkin Speech
With the exception of Wednesday, which has been the most volatile day of the week over the past 12 months, the S&P 500 didn’t trade too far from its daily averages last week. This was the first time in several weeks volatility has calmed down, and with the Cboe Volatility Index trading back near 20, daily closing moves may continue to normalize.
📋Here’s a curated list of top value-added insights that uncover what’s happening way beyond the usual financial media headlines.
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