Multi-Week Volatility Buildup Finally Enters Cathartic Stage

👋 Hello and welcome to Monday! 🌅 

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Volatility finally breaks higher, after U.S.–Israel strike on Iran adds fresh geopolitical risk premium.

• February jobs report tests labor market’s early-year rebound.

• Retail sales reveal whether cautious consumers are loosening wallets.

• Apple headlines big tech week alongside Broadcom and CrowdStrike.

Let’s rock! 🥁🎶🎤

🔍Labor Market Check-In Lands at a Pivotal Moment

Markets have been jolted into risk-off mode, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) now in its 8th decile of all post-1994 closing price history to start the week. This comes after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend escalated tensions across the region. Iran retaliated, and President Donald Trump signaled military operations could continue for weeks.

Friday’s jobs report arrives with investors asking a simple question: is the labor market quietly regaining its footing—or just catching its breath?

January surprised to the upside, with employers adding 130,000 jobs—more than double what economists penciled in. That eased some of the late-2025 anxiety. But there was a catch: prior months were revised lower, suggesting last year’s hiring momentum wasn’t quite as sturdy as first advertised.

This week’s February print will help clarify whether January marked a genuine turn higher or just statistical noise. Before that, Wednesday’s private-sector update from ADP should offer an early temperature check.

On the consumer side, the government is still clearing a data backlog following last year’s shutdown, meaning January’s retail sales figures are finally stepping into the spotlight. December showed spending losing steam, with softer job growth partly to blame. If consumers remain cautious, that could reinforce the idea that the economy is cooling—but not cracking.

Also on deck: the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which will provide anecdotal snapshots of economic conditions across the country ahead of the March 17–18 policy meeting. Add in fresh reads on February manufacturing and services activity, and investors will have plenty of signals to parse.

💵 What’s the market pricing in for the week ahead?

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📈 Tech Chips, Retail Receipts, and an Apple Curtain Raise

The corporate calendar is doing its best to keep things interesting.

After Tim Cook teased “a big week ahead,” Apple is expected to roll out a slate of new products, potentially including the next iPhone iteration and a more budget-friendly MacBook. The announcements are slated to unfold over several days, wrapping with a midweek showcase event that Apple is positioning as a “special experience.”

On the earnings front, chip designer Broadcom reports Wednesday after previously projecting that AI-driven revenue would double this quarter. Marvell Technology follows Thursday, giving investors another read on whether AI infrastructure demand is still humming.

Software names are also stepping up. CrowdStrike reports as investors debate whether AI is friend or foe to the sector. Some see disruption risk; others see a new wave of opportunity. Results from MongoDB, Guidewire Software, and Samsara should help fill in the picture.

Retail will also get its turn. Target, now under the leadership of CEO Michael Fiddelke, is looking to build on a stock rebound after a rough 2025. Costco has also been quietly climbing back after last year’s stumble. Meanwhile, Best Buy and Ross Stores round the week.

🤔 Which companies are poised to possibly over- or underreact to earnings this week?

The largest company to report earnings this week, Broadcom, has a history of trading well outside of the market makers’ expected range during the trading session immediately following earnings (keep reading below the next table for more details on how this is calculated).

In fact, of the 20 largest companies reporting earnings this week, Broadcom’s tendency to overshoot the implied price range immediately following earnings is greatest.

On the other side of the coin, of the top 20 companies reporting this week, Shinhan Financial Group shows the greatest likelihood of staying inside its post-earnings expected range (keep reading below the next table for more details).

👇 Below is a look at this week’s biggest earnings reports, sorted by market cap:

The energy sector (XLE), technology sector (XLK), and materials sector (XLB) have officially claimed the top spots as the market's most volatile sectors, meaning investors are bracing for wider price swings.

The spotlight is fixed on the energy sector (XLE) as traders scramble to price in the geopolitical fallout following recent strikes on Iran, an event that could redefine global oil supply overnight.

Over in the technology sector (XLK), the focus is strictly on the upcoming high-stakes semiconductor earnings reports.

Meanwhile, the materials sector (XLB) will be hyper-sensitive to next week's global manufacturing data, which serves as a critical pulse check for industrial demand.

If you’re looking for a smoother ride, the consumer staples sector (XLP), healthcare sector (XLV), and industrials sector (XLI) are currently enjoying the lowest implied volatility. 

For the consumer staples sector (XLP), next week is all about the latest retail sales figures to see if "inflation-weary" is still the mood of the month.

Investors in the healthcare sector (XLV) will be glued to federal updates regarding new drug pricing regulations that could impact long-term margins.

Finally, the industrials sector (XLI) will be watching for any sudden shifts in corporate capital spending plans buried within the latest manufacturing reports.

Monday

• ISM manufacturing PMI

• S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI

• Top Earnings: EchoStar, AST SpaceMobile, MongoDB

• Apple kicks off its first product launches of the year

Tuesday

• Fed Speakers: New York Fed President John Williams, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

• Top Earnings: CrowdStrike, Ross Stores, AutoZone, Target, Viking Holdings, On Holding, Best Buy

Wednesday

• ADP National Employment Report

• S&P Global U.S. services PMI, ISM services PMI, Fed Beige Book

• Top Earnings: Broadcom, Veeva Systems, Brown-Forman, Okta

Thursday

• Initial jobless claims

• U.S. productivity (Q4), Import price index

• Top Earnings: Costco, Marvell Technology, Kroger, JD.Com Burlington Stores, Samsara, Guidewire Software, Gap

Friday

• U.S. employment report

• Consumer credit, Retail sales, Business inventories

• Top Earnings: Genesco

After a stealthy multi-week rise, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is finally breaking out in response to this weekend’s events in the Middle East.

Now at levels not seen since late November, this sets the stage for daily price moves that are well beyond what’s been normal over the past 12 months.

📋Here’s a curated list of top value-added insights that uncover what’s happening way beyond the usual financial media headlines.