Jobs, Other Delayed Data Finally Arrive as Stocks Prepare for Santa

👋Hello and Welcome to Monday! 🌅 

Here’s what we’re watching this week:

• Data flood incoming: delayed jobs, inflation, and retail reports finally hit traders’ screens.

• Seasonal shift ahead: December’s seasonal pattern bottoms this week ahead of better late-month performance.

• Fed on wait-and-see: Powell wants more data; governors’ remarks could move markets.

• Earnings pulse check: Micron tests the AI trade while Nike and FedEx read the consumer.

Let’s dive in!💦💦💦

💵What’s the market pricing in for the week ahead?

The data drought is over. After last week’s rate cut—framed squarely around cracks in the labor market—the Fed is about to get a fresh stack of receipts.

On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics drops November jobs data, giving investors a clearer read on whether hiring is actually cooling or just playing possum. That same day brings October retail sales and September business inventories, offering a temperature check on how willing consumers still are to swipe, tap, and splurge.

Then comes the main event: Thursday’s CPI report. November inflation data will help answer the trillion-dollar question—are tariffs quietly creeping back into prices as the Fed looks toward 2026?

Fed speakers, grab your popcorn.
Two governors with ties to President Trump are on the mic this week. Stephen Miran speaks Monday morning after voting for a bigger cut last week, while Christopher Waller—often mentioned as a future Fed chair—addresses a room full of CEOs on Wednesday. Markets will be listening for hints, not headlines. 

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📈 Earnings: AI checks in, consumers get examined

While Big Tech mostly wrapped up earnings season, Micron Technology takes the baton Wednesday. The memory-chip maker is one of the AI trade’s biggest winners, with shares up more than 200% over the past year—expect expectations to be just as lofty.

On the consumer front, Nike reports Thursday as its turnaround gains traction, even as tariffs remain a lingering risk. Investors will also scan results from CarMax, General Mills, Conagra, Darden Restaurants, Birkenstock, and Carnival for clues on how resilient household spending really is.

And don’t sleep on FedEx. The shipping giant reports Thursday after reinstating its full-year outlook, projecting 4%–6% revenue growth despite tariff headwinds. As always, its numbers double as a proxy for the broader economy’s pulse.

🤔 Which companies are poised to possibly over- or underreact to earnings this week?

The largest company to report earnings this week, Micron Technology, has shown only a very slight tendency to move outside of the market makers’ expected range during the trading session immediately following earnings (keep reading below the next table for more details on how this is calculated).

Of the 20 largest companies reporting earnings this week, Cintas, has the strongest tendency to overshoot the implied price range immediately following earnings.

On the other side of the coin, of the top 20 companies reporting this week, Carnival shows the greatest likelihood of staying inside its post-earnings expected range (keep reading below the next table for more details).

👇 Below is a look at this week’s biggest earnings reports, sorted by market cap:

🎅Santa’s Potential Path

No. The “Santa Claus rally” isn’t over.

In fact, it hasn’t even started.

The strength seen in stocks last Wednesday and Thursday was largely an anticipated reaction the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate cut of 2025. Yet, in an unsurprising rush to attract clicks, many financial media outlets cited Friday’s downside reversal as being the end of this year’s visit from ol’ Saint Nick.

Known for the bullish tailwinds that typically make their way through the stock market during this widely followed seasonal phenomenon, traders and active investors will have to wait until late December to see if holiday spirit returns to the market.

This seasonal window, discovered in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the The Stock Trader's Almanac, officially runs from the last five trading days of December through the first two trading days of January.

So why does Santa tend to show up fashionably late?

A few reasons—none proven, all persistent:

• Risk appetite tends to rise when traders are feeling jollier and headlines are quieter.

• With institutional desks partially staffed, retail investors—historically more bullish—have a bigger influence.

• Year-end cash, retirement contributions, and fund inflows often hit markets in late December.

• Once investors finish dumping losers for tax reasons, selling pressure eases.

• Portfolio managers often scoop up winners to make year-end holdings look sharper.

• Less liquidity means it takes less buying to push prices higher.

With seven trading days left before this bullish period event begins, today’s seasonal chart shows just how closely the S&P 500 (grey and green daily price candles) has been tracking to its historic December average (dark grey line on right-hand side of chart) so far this month.

This chart shows that today’s session, the 11th trading session of December, marks the low point of average returns for the month of December since 1957, which is the benchmark index’s inception as a 500-stock index.

While history does not always repeat, over the next seven trading days bulls will be looking for signs that history will at least rhyme with the S&P 500 consolidating ahead of a late-month rally.

Looks like the basic materials (XLB) sector is expected to experience the most volatility over the coming week, with technology (XLK) once again taking the second-highest implied volatility position. Rounding out the top three sectors in terms of their implied five-day volatility outlook, is the consumer discretionary (XLY) sector.

At the opposite end of things, traders looking for lighter daily swings can look to the consumer staples (XLP), communication services (XLC), and real estate (XLRE) sectors.

Monday

• Homebuilder confidence index

• Empire State manufacturing survey

• Fed Speakers: Fed Governor Stephen Miran, New York Fed President John Williams

• Top Earnings: Navan

Tuesday

• U.S. employment report

• U.S. retail sales, Business inventories, S&P flash U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

• Top Earnings: Lennar

Wednesday

• Fed Speakers: Fed Governor Christopher Waller, New York President John Williams, Atlanta Federal President Raphael Bostic

• Top Earnings: Micron Technology, Jabil, General Mills

Thursday

• Consumer Price Index

• Initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey

• Top Earnings: Accenture, Nike, Cintas, FedEx, Darden Restaurants, Birkenstock, CarMax, KB Home, BlackBerry

Friday

• Existing-home sales

• Consumer sentiment

• Top Earnings: Paychex, Carnival, Conagra, Lamb Weston, Winnebago

As advertised, volatility—as measured by the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX)—witnessed a reflexive bounce early last week before settling back toward the low end of a multi-month range.

While this suggests daily market swings should remain close to the norms shown below, remaining vigilant for potential spurts of higher volatility is still prudent, as momentum behind falling volatility is slowing noticeably.

📋Here’s a curated list of top value-added insights that uncover what’s happening way beyond the usual financial media headlines.