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As Stocks Begin Their Favorite Stretch — Costco Has What You Need for November

The Fed’s flying blind, Big Tech’s reporting, and seasonality says “don’t fight the calendar.”

November 03, 2025

👋Hello and Welcome to Monday! 🌅 

Here’s what’s on deck this week:

  • Big Tech and pharma take center stage as earnings season heats up amid AI buzz and policy pressure.

  • Chipmakers and AI software firms face the spotlight as investors gauge the next wave of innovation demand.

  • With the jobs report delayed by the shutdown, Wall Street turns to private data for economic clues.

Let’s jump in!🦘🦘

💵What’s the market pricing in for the week ahead?

The Fed’s got its eye on a cooling labor market—but thanks to the ongoing government shutdown, it’ll be squinting for clues again this week.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ October jobs report, originally due Friday, is expected to be delayed for a second straight month, along with factory orders, trade data, and job openings.

Still, investors won’t be completely in the dark. The private-sector ADP jobs report drops Wednesday, and ISM surveys on manufacturing and services should offer hints on hiring and prices.

Also on deck: consumer credit data, Michigan’s sentiment survey, and fresh Fed speak from Anna Paulson, Alberto Musalem, and John Williams—coming just after last week’s second rate cut of the year.

It’s also a tech-heavy earnings week, with AMD, Qualcomm, Arm, and Palantir all set to drop AI-fueled updates. Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca will face questions about drug prices as Trump renews his push to cap costs. And the gig economy’s biggest players—Uber, DoorDash, and Airbnb—will test whether consumers are still spending on rides, food, and weekend getaways.

ℹ️ WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?

For both stock and options traders: Knowing what the implied weekly range is helps set expectations for what the likely trading limits will be. This can help prevent overaction near quantified range extremes, while also informing the traders as to whether there is still room for an intra-week rally or sell-off to run.

📝 Note: This same logic can also be applied to the “Where’s the Action At?” section below.

Click here 👈to learn more about our charts.

Earnings season is shifting into overdrive, and tech’s running point. Advanced Micro Devices kicks off Tuesday, with investors eyeing details on its October deal to supply AI chips to Oracle. Qualcomm, fresh off unveiling two new AI data-center chips, and chip designer Arm Holdings will also take their turn in the spotlight. Palantir reports Monday after its stock more than doubled this year on AI hype, while cloud powerhouse Arista Networks follows Tuesday.

In pharma land, Novo Nordisk steps up Wednesday—just as President Trump turns up the heat on Ozempic’s sky-high price tag. He says it should cost $150 a month, not $1,000. Amgen, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca will also report as the industry scrambles to cut deals and avoid those threatened tariffs.

And don’t sleep on the gig economy: Uber, DoorDash, and Airbnb are all rolling in with earnings this week, giving a read on consumer demand, travel, and whether your side hustle is still paying off.

🤔 Which companies are poised to possibly over- or underreact to earnings this week?

Shares of this week’s biggest reporting company (Novo Nordisk A/S) have a history of moving a bit less than the market expects during the trading session immediately following earnings.

Of the 20 largest companies reporting earnings this week, AppLovin shows the strongest likelihood of moving more than the market expects during the trading session immediately following earnings (keep reading below the next table for more details on how this is calculated).

Conversely, of the top 20 companies reporting this week, Pfizer has a history of remaining within its post-earnings expected range (keep reading below the next table for more details).

👇 Below is a look at this week’s biggest earnings reports, sorted by market cap.

HOW CAN TRADERS USE THIS INFORMATION?

For active traders looking for actionable insights, the highlighted columns on the table above show the implied (expected) post-earnings move for each company, along with the Average 1-Day Realized Volatility Post Earnings Ratio (1D RV).

📈Implied Move: The market’s best guess at how much a stock will swing after earnings.

📊1D RV: A powerful tool that represents the post-earnings price move divided by the expected price move over the past 12 quarters. In other words, it measures how good (or bad) the market is at pricing each company’s earnings.

💵When you see a ratio >1.0, it indicates that, historically, the earnings are mispriced and the stock moves MORE than the market anticipates, favoring straddle buyers.

🪝A ratio <1.0 tells the opposite story, meaning the stock historically moves LESS than the market anticipates, which favors straddle sellers.

Happy hunting.

After plowing through the seasonally weak months of August and September—and completely ignoring October’s dark history as the host of some of the market’s worst sell-offs—bulls enter the strongest months of the year with a honey badger mentally.

November marks the beginning of a multi-month stretch of seasonal tailwinds for the S&P 500.

S&P 500 (SPX) - Quick November Stats Since 2000

  • The S&P 500 has delivered positive returns 76% of the time (19 up vs. 6 down).

  • The average return is +2.2%.

  • The median return is +2.8%.

  • The maximum gain is +10.8%.

  • The maximum drawdown is -8.0%.

The win rate only dips a little, to 71%, when we consider November performance after all-time highs were made in October (see green highlighted years in table above).

You Know Who Loves November More Than Anyone? Costco🛒

According to the Unusual Whales platform, of the 50 largest companies by market cap, Costco Wholesale is the only company to have finished November in the green every year since the Great Financial Crisis.

💉 What’s Next for the Weight-Loss Drug Market: The weight-loss drug wave keeps rolling as new players, pill formats and insurance-coverage battles await entrants in a market once dominated by a few weekly injections—so yes, your gym-membership pitch might now include “while I wait for the next blockbuster drug.” Read more

📈 Berkshire profit rises, cash soars to record: Berkshire Hathaway logged a 34% jump in operating earnings and socked away nearly 382 billion USD in cash—Warren Buffett’s merry-band might be gearing up for a big deal or just challenging goldfish to a staring contest. Read more

🧸 Shein accused of selling childlike sex dolls in France: France’s consumer watchdog flagged Shein for marketing dolls with a childlike aesthetic resembling prohibited content, triggering both criminal and regulatory probes—turns out fast fashion can cross more ethical lines than just sealskin. Read more

📉 Recession possible without more rate cuts, says Bessent: Investor Scott Bessent warned that parts of the U.S. economy are already downshifting and that the Federal Reserve may need interest-rate cuts or risk sliding deeper into recession—your “shopping for fun” budget might want to stick around. Read more

👔 CEO Andy Jassy: Amazon layoffs were about culture, not AI: Andy Jassy of Amazon said the recent 14,000-job reduction wasn’t triggered by AI upheaval or pure cost-cuts but by a renewed focus on speed and decision-making—a corporate “clean-out the clutter” move with Silicon Valley flair. Read more

This week, volatility is expected to be the highest in the technology (XLK), cyclicals (XLY), and energy (XLE) sectors.

For traders looking for smaller price swings, focus on the healthcare (XLV), communications (XLC), and real estate (XLRE) sectors.

ℹ️ WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?

For options traders in particular: Implied volatility sets the tone for option prices. Understanding where large or small implied moves are priced in helps traders decide whether options are over- or under-valued before placing trades.

Monday

  • ISM manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Shutdown-delayed data: Construction spending (September)

  • S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Top Earnings: Palantir, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Williams Companies, Simon Property Group

Tuesday

  • Shutdown-delayed data: Trade balance (September), factory orders (September), job openings (September)

  • Top Earnings: Advanced Micro Devices, Shopify, Uber Technologies, Arista Networks, Amgen, Eaton, Pfizer, Spotify, Ferrari, BP

Wednesday

  • ADP employment (October)

  • ISM services (October), S&P services PMI (October)

  • Top Earnings: Toyota Motor, Novo Nordisk, McDonald’s, Applovin, Qualcomm, Arm Holdings, Robinhood, DoorDash

Thursday

  • Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem

  • Shutdown-delayed data: Initial jobless claims (Week ending Nov. 1). Labor productivity (Q3)

  • Tesla shareholder meeting

  • Top Earnings: AstraZeneca, ConocoPhillips, Airbnb, Vistra

Friday

  • Consumer sentiment (November)

  • Shutdown-delayed data: U.S. employment report (October)

  • Consumer credit (September)

  • Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: New York Fed President John Williams

  • Top Earnings: Constellation Energy, KKR, Enbridge, Duke Energy

Volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), began to rebound early last week. While this resulted in the S&P 500 witnessing outsized moves this past Monday and Thursday, the majority of last week’s daily closing price changes did not overshoot the averages of the past 12 months.

With the VIX now above both its 21- and 50-day moving averages, and the S&P 500 essentially trendless in the short-term, daily moves remain prone to outsized swings.

📝 EDITOR’S NOTE

Each day the market is open, we update our comprehensive performance charts on our website for you to view. In addition, be sure to follow us on X for timely intra-week updates.

📋Here’s a curated list of top value-added insights that uncover what’s happening way beyond the usual financial media headlines.

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