All Eyes on Trade, Tesla, and the Fed

👋Hello and Happy Monday! 🌅 

Here’s what’s on deck this week:

• Tesla and Intel headline a jam-packed earnings week.

• Trade talks between Trump and Xi could shake markets.

• Inflation data may steer the Fed’s next move.

• Government shutdown delays key economic reports again.

• Volatility remains elevated as uncertainty reigns in Washington.

Let’s get going.▶️▶️

💵What’s the market pricing for the Week?

Trade is stealing the spotlight this week.

All eyes are on the upcoming face-off between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Add in a delayed-but-crucial September CPI report—thanks, government shutdown.

Friday’s inflation read will likely be the Fed’s last piece of ammo before next week’s rate decision, with other reports stuck in Washington’s bureaucratic traffic jam until the budget standoff ends.

Meanwhile, on the earnings front, Tesla takes center stage Wednesday.

Intel’s also on deck, hoping its big bets and bigger investor patience finally pay off. Buckle up—it’s shaping up to be a busy week for markets, even without Uncle Sam’s usual data dump.

After the S&P’s 2.7% slide on October 10th snapped its 11-week streak of staying inside its implied weekly range, the index has since managed to claw its way back, holding in the top half of range last week.

Zooming out, when we strip away the noise and look at 20 years of data, the S&P 500 has closed within its implied weekly range about 78% of the time during uptrends like the one it’s in now—a stat that options sellers probably have framed on their wall.

Click here 👈to learn more about our charts.

It’s a blockbuster week for earnings, headlined by Tesla, which reports Wednesday after posting stronger-than-expected deliveries as buyers scrambled to cash in on those soon-to-expire EV tax credits. Ford and GM—also stepping up to the mic this week—probably got a similar boost, though both have been quietly tapping the brakes on their once-lofty EV dreams.

Expect Elon Musk to spend less time talking about cars and more about his growing sci-fi empire: robotaxis, Optimus robots, and the ever-elusive promise of full self-driving.

On Thursday, Intel reports after a turbocharged run fueled by a U.S. government stake, fresh partnerships (including one with Nvidia), and renewed optimism that the chipmaker’s comeback arc might actually stick.

Netflix is also set to drop results after raising prices and expectations, while Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble could spill the tea on how consumers are feeling about their wallets.

Rounding out the week, HCA Healthcare gives us a pulse check on hospitals on Friday, and Newmont’s Thursday report comes as gold keeps smashing records—because apparently, inflation isn’t the only thing that likes to climb .

🤔Which companies are poised to possibly over/underreact to earnings this week?

Based on the stock’s previous post-earnings responses, shares of this week’s biggest reporting company (Tesla) have shown a tendency to move beyond the implied/expected move range following earnings.

The same can be said for Philp Morris (keep reading below the next table for more details on how this is calculated).

While not in the top 10 largest companies reporting this week, Lam Research has shown an EXTREME tendency to rally/fall more than its post-earnings expectations.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, of the top companies reporting this week, Warren Buffett’s Coca Cola has shown a tendency to remain within its post-earnings expected range (keep reading below the next table for more details).

👇 Below, is a look at this week’s biggest earnings reports, sorted by market cap.

For active traders looking for actionable insights, the highlighted columns on the table above show the implied (expected) post-earnings move for each company, along with the Average 1-Day Realized Volatility Post Earnings Ratio (1D RV).

📈Implied Move: The market’s best guess at how much a stock will swing after earnings.

📊1D RV: A powerful tool that represents the post-earnings price move divided by the expected price move over the past 12 quarters. In other words, it measures how good (or bad) the market is at pricing each company’s earnings.

💵When you see a ratio >1.0, it indicates that, historically, the earnings are mispriced and the stock moves MORE than the market anticipates, favoring straddle buyers.

🪝A ratio <1.0 tells the opposite story, meaning the stock historically moves LESS than the market anticipates, which favors straddle sellers.

Happy hunting.

With the S&P 500’s key short and near-term moving averages now sloping sideways, the benchmark index is still searching for its next trend in the wake of the large 2.7% drop on October 10th.

At the same time, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is still trending above its near-term averages.

This, when coupled with the potential for market-moving updates on trade policy ahead of a scheduled meeting between President Donald Trump and China's Xi Jinping, leaves the door open for weekly price action that is potentially outsized of what is normal.

Click here 👈to learn more about our charts.

Despite the VIX’s large intra-day reversal lower on Friday, this key measure of expected S&P 500 volatility over the next 30 days was still showing a series of higher lows on Friday. Until VIX shows sustained movement back below 20, this week’s daily price moves are at risk of extending beyond the average moves witnessed over the past 12 months.

Monday

• U.S. leading economic indicators (September)

Tuesday

• Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Fed Governor Christopher Waller to deliver opening, closing remarks at payments conference

• Key Earnings: Netflix, GE Aerospace, Coca-Cola, Philip Morris, RTX Corp, Texas Instruments, Capital One, Lockheed Martin, 3M Company, General Motors

Wednesday

• Key Earnings: Tesla, SAP, IBM, Thermo Fisher Scientific, AT&T, GE Vernova, Lam Research

Thursday

• Existing home sales (September)

• Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman to testify at Senate banking regulations hearing

• Data Delayed by the Shutdown: Initial jobless claims (Week ending Oct. 18)

• Key Earnings: T-Mobile US, Intel, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Blackstone, Newmont Corp, Ford

Friday

• Consumer price index (CPI) (September)

• Other Data to Watch: S&P flash U.S. PMI (October), Consumer sentiment - final (October)

• Data Delayed by the Shutdown: New Home Sales (September)

• Key Earnings: Procter & Gamble, Sanofi, HCA Healthcare