A Spicy Start to 2026

👋Hello and welcome to the first Monday of 2026! 🌅 

Here’s what we’re watching this week:

• U.S. action in Venezuela adds geopolitical uncertainty to markets

• Oil prices could see increased volatility this week

• Jobs and delayed macro data may influence rate expectations

• AI and grocery earnings offer insight into growth and consumers

Let’s jump in! 🦘🦘🦘

🌐Markets face geopolitical and economic crosscurrents

U.S. markets open the first full trading week of 2026 amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and a heavy slate of economic data.

Over the weekend, the U.S. conducted a military operation in Venezuela that resulted in President Nicolás Maduro being taken into U.S. custody to face criminal charges. President Donald Trump later said the U.S. would temporarily oversee the country during a transition period and that American oil companies would help rebuild Venezuela’s energy infrastructure.

The scope and duration of U.S. involvement remain unclear, leaving investors on alert for further details from Washington. Energy markets are expected to closely track developments, with oil prices potentially sensitive to new information.

Jobs data and delayed reports in focus

Investors will also turn their attention to labor market data that could influence interest-rate expectations. The December jobs report is scheduled for release Friday, alongside other indicators including job openings, private-sector hiring, and weekly jobless claims.

Federal Reserve officials have signaled that a weakening labor market could open the door to additional rate cuts, though policymakers remain divided on the outlook.

Several economic reports delayed by last year’s government shutdown are also set for release this week, including data on housing starts, factory orders, productivity, and the U.S. trade deficit. Consumer sentiment and business activity surveys for January are also on the calendar.

Earnings spotlight: AI and the consumer

On the corporate front, Applied Digital’s earnings report on Wednesday may provide insight into the strength of AI infrastructure spending following a sharp run-up in the stock. IT distributor TD Synnex is also set to report, offering a broader view of enterprise technology demand.

In consumer-related earnings, Constellation Brands and Tilray Brands are scheduled to report amid slowing alcohol sales and evolving cannabis regulations. Results from Albertsons, Cal-Maine Foods, and Simply Good Foods are expected to shed light on food spending trends and consumer behavior.

💵What’s the market pricing in for the week ahead?

Click here 👈 to learn more about our charts.

📊What earnings are saying this week

Earnings season is running on a lighter schedule, but there’s still enough on the calendar to keep investors busy — especially if you care about AI and the state of the consumer.

Tech check-in:
Applied Digital reports Wednesday, giving markets another read on whether the AI infrastructure boom still has legs. Shares of the data center operator have been on a tear as demand for power keeps climbing, and investors will be scanning the numbers for confirmation that spending hasn’t slowed. IT distributor TD Synnex also reports this week, offering a broader snapshot of enterprise tech demand.

Food, drinks, and the consumer:
Constellation Brands checks in Wednesday, with the Corona owner navigating softer beer demand and pressure from tariffs. On Thursday, Tilray Brands reports following its recent reverse stock split, and management commentary could touch on how cannabis reclassification might reshape the industry.

Rounding out the week, results from Albertsons, Cal-Maine Foods, and Simply Good Foods should provide a clearer picture of how consumers are spending at the grocery store — from eggs to protein bars.

🤔 Which companies are poised to possibly over- or underreact to earnings this week?

The largest company to report earnings this week, Constellation Brands, has a history of moving outside of the market makers’ expected range during the trading session immediately following earnings (keep reading below the next table for more details on how this is calculated).

Of the 20 largest companies reporting earnings this week, RPM International, has the strongest tendency to overshoot the implied price range immediately following earnings.

On the other side of the coin, of the top 20 companies reporting this week, Lufax Holding shows the greatest likelihood of staying inside its post-earnings expected range (keep reading below the next table for more details).

👇 Below is a look at this week’s biggest earnings reports, sorted by market cap:

This week, the consumer staples (XLY) sector is expected to be the most volatility sector, with technology (XLK) and basic materials (XLB) showing the next highest levels of implied volatility.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, the consumer staples (XLP), communications (XLC), and healthcare (XLV) sectors are showing the lowest implied volatility.

Monday

• ISM manufacturing

Tuesday

• S&P services PMI

• Fed Speakers: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin

Wednesday

• Fed Speakers: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman

• ADP employment

• Job openings and labor turnover, manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders, ISM services PMI

• Top Earnings: Constellation Brands, Jefferies Financial, Albertson Companies, Applied Digital, MSC Industrial, Cal‑Maine Foods

Thursday

• Weekly unemployment insurance claims

• Consumer credit, Productivity and costs, U.S. trade deficit

• Top Earnings: RPM International, TD Synnex, Acuity, Commercial Metals Company, WD‑40, Simply Good Foods, Tilray Brands

Friday

• U.S. employment report

• Housing starts, Consumer sentiment - preliminary

Although the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) pushed up to a nine-day high last week—an unusual move for this time of year—it wasn’t exactly a shock. Volatility was coming off extremely subdued levels heading into the week, making even a modest pickup stand out.

With the VIX still sitting below the 16 level and below its falling 21-day moving average, the majority of this week’s trading sessions can be expected to move within the historical ranges shown below. This outlook would change, however, in the event the VIX closes above 16.

📋Here’s a curated list of top value-added insights that uncover what’s happening way beyond the usual financial media headlines.