Prime Day, Tariffs, and Fed Talk—Oh My

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This week’s got everything: trade deadline drama, a Fed vibe check, and Amazon’s Prime Day mega-sale. Here’s what’s on tap:

Wednesday’s tariff deadline marks the end of a 90-day timeout on “Liberation Day” tariffs. The U.S. is still hashing out deals with several countries (Canada's officially ghosted), and if no progress is made, those steep import taxes could snap back into place.

Fed minutes drop Wednesday, giving investors a behind-the-scenes look at what Jerome Powell & Co. were thinking during June’s meeting. With economic data rolling in, rate cut speculation is heating up again.

Consumer credit and jobless claims reports are also coming in hot, giving fresh insight into how American wallets and workforces are holding up.

Amazon Prime Day kicks off Tuesday and runs through Friday—because apparently two days wasn’t enough for record-breaking deals and impulse buys.

Earnings trickle in before the real season starts next week. Delta (DAL) and Conagra (CAG) report Thursday—Delta’s been riding high on travel demand, while Conagra’s still recovering from supply chain whiplash. Levi’s (LEVI) is also up, trying to stay stylish despite trade headwinds.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just wrapped last week at record highs before taking a holiday breather. The Dow’s not far behind, and President Trump capped off the week by signing a major tax-and-spend bill into law.

Monday

• Nothing scheduled

Tuesday

• Amazon Prime Day begins

• Consumer credit (May)

• More Data to Watch: NFIB small business optimism index (June)

• Key Earnings: Aehr Test Systems (AEHR)

Wednesday

• U.S. "reciprocal" tariffs deadline

• Wholesale inventories (May)

• Minutes for June FOMC meeting

• Key Earnings: AZZ and Bassett Furniture

Thursday

• Initial jobless claims (Week ending July 5)

• Key Earnings: Delta Air Lines, Conagra Brands, Levi Strauss

Friday

• Monthly U.S. federal budget (June)

• Amazon Prime Day ends

📉 Trump’s tariffs deadline is looming for Europe — here’s where things stand: The clock’s ticking on Trump’s trade threat to slap tariffs on European goods if they don’t give in to his economic demands by summer’s end. EU leaders are sweating like a brie wheel in August, unsure whether to negotiate or brace for impact. Meanwhile, wine, cheese, and BMWs are all wondering what they did to deserve this. Read more

📦 Billionaire Bessent sees Trump tariffs as part of larger trade reshuffle: Hedge fund mogul Scott Bessent says Trump’s tariff game is less chaos, more chess, arguing it's part of a master plan to reorder global trade like a poorly shuffled deck. He thinks Europe and China should buckle up for a ride straight through the rules of the WTO. Basically, Bessent believes economic diplomacy is now sponsored by WWE. Read more

🐼 Xi’s absence from BRICS summit raises questions about China’s global strategy: Chinese President Xi Jinping skipped the BRICS summit, sending his deputy instead—and now everyone’s wondering if he had a scheduling conflict or just really didn’t want to share snacks. His no-show has sparked speculation about China's global priorities and internal pressures. Even in international politics, ghosting speaks volumes. Read more

🛢️ OPEC members agree to larger-than-expected oil production hike in August: OPEC just surprised markets with a bigger-than-expected oil production boost for August, basically yelling “plot twist!” at the global energy stage. The move is aimed at cooling prices and maybe currying favor before hurricane season does it for them. Traders are now frantically rewriting their spreadsheets with extra caffeine. Read more

🚗 Why Tesla stock could surprise in Q2 earnings: Analysts think Tesla might pull off a second-quarter earnings surprise, thanks to price cuts, AI hype, and Elon’s uncanny ability to make headlines faster than autopilot updates. Wall Street’s expectations are low enough to limbo under, which is exactly when Tesla tends to leap. The only thing more volatile than its stock is Musk’s Twitter feed. Read more

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