Lots to Digest During a Shortened Week

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Markets Get a Break, but the News Cycle Won’t

Investors may get a long weekend, but the markets won’t be completely quiet. This week serves up a combo of labor market updates, Capitol Hill chaos, and a couple of headline-making earnings reports.

👷 Jobs watch: Thursday’s June jobs report is the main event, landing right as the Fed is scanning for signs of a cooling labor market. May numbers beat expectations, but the pace of hiring slowed—and economists think uncertainty around tariffs and spending cuts could keep that trend going. The Fed’s in “wait and see” mode on rate cuts, but a soft report could push them closer to action.

🏛️ D.C. drama: President Trump’s trying to push his “One Big Beautiful Bill” (yes, really) through the Senate before the July 4 deadline. Investors are also keeping tabs on tariff talk, with a July 9 negotiation deadline that may or may not hold—Trump said Friday that talks with Canada are done.

🍺 Earnings highlights: Beer giant Constellation Brands (think Modelo and Corona) reports Tuesday after trimming its forecast last quarter. Tesla (TSLA) follows on Wednesday with June delivery numbers, which will give investors a clean read on how the EV giant fared in the first half.

📆 Holiday hours: Markets close early Thursday and are fully shut Friday for Independence Day. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended last week at record highs, riding Friday’s rally into the long weekend.

🚀 Blue Origin successfully completes 13th crewed suborbital flight: Jeff Bezos' rocket baby, Blue Origin, just nailed its 13th human space hop with six passengers aboard, including a former Air Force pilot and a science teacher. The flight lasted about 10 minutes—longer than some Zoom meetings—and reached the edge of space without a hiccup. Bezos remains undefeated in the billionaire space race (sorry, Elon). Read more

📉 Global central banks warned they may be doing too little, too late: The Bank for International Settlements has entered the group chat with a spicy take: central banks may have dragged their feet on tackling inflation and are now playing economic catch-up. They warned that easing too soon could undo progress faster than a toddler with a Lego tower. In short, it’s a monetary “damned if you do, doomed if you don’t” situation. Read more

🛡️ Rampant cybercriminal group targets U.S. water and energy systems: A cybercrime gang with a name only a hacker could love—"Cyber Av3ngers"—has been targeting U.S. water and energy infrastructure in a digital tantrum. They're believed to be linked to Iran and specialize in messing with control systems, because nothing says chaos like poisoned water or a surprise blackout. Uncle Sam is now watching their IP address like a hawk with Wi-Fi. Read more

⛽ Japan auto trade unfair, could buy more U.S. oil, Trump tells Fox News: Trump took a jab at Japan for not buying enough American cars and suggested they could make up for it by guzzling more U.S. oil. He called their trade practices “unfair” and made his usual appeal to drill, baby, drill. Somewhere in Tokyo, a confused car executive just Googled “F-150 with sushi trim.” Read more

🇺🇸 Trump says he wouldn't reappoint Powell, wants lower interest rates: Donald Trump has made it clear he’d give Jerome Powell the boot if reelected, criticizing the Fed chair for keeping interest rates too high. Trump wants cheaper borrowing across the board, which makes sense—mansions and golf courses don’t pay for themselves. Powell, meanwhile, is probably clutching his spreadsheets like a security blanket. Read more

Monday

• Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) (June)

• Fed Speakers: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

• Key Earnings: Progress Software

Tuesday

• ISM manufacturing (June)

• More Data to Watch: S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI (June), Construction spending (May), Job openings (May)

• Key Earnings: Constellation Brands, MSC Industrial Direct, Greenbrier

Wednesday

• ADP employment (June)

• Tesla June deliveries data expected

• Key Earnings: Unifirst, Franklin Covey

Thursday

• U.S. employment report (June)

• More Data to Watch: Initial jobless claims (Week ending June 28), U.S. trade deficit (May), S&P final U.S. services PMI (June), Factory orders (May), ISM services (June)

• Stock and bond markets close early

Friday

• Stock and bond markets closed

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